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广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

专家:美联储加息中期风险与阻力仍存在

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月17日 03:34:20
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(原)(标)(题)(:专)(家)(:美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(中)(期)(风)(险)(与)(阻)(力)(仍)(存)(在)(
作)(者)(谭)(雅)(玲)((中)(国)(外)(汇)(投)(资)(研)(究)(院)(院)(长)(,中)(新)(经)(纬)(特)(约)(专)(家)()
北)(京)(时)(间)(3月)(22日)(,美)(联)(储)(2018年)(以)(来)(首)(次)(加)(息)(落)(地)(,利)(率)(区)(间)(上)(调)(25BP至)(1.5-1.75%。对)(于)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(,市)(场)(是)(有)(充)(分)(预)(期)(的)(,但)(关)(于)(加)(息)(的)(次)(数)(则)(存)(在)(一)(些)(争)(论)(。短)(期)(因)(素)(看)(,美)(联)(储)(年)(内)(加)(息)(步)(伐)(加)(快)(有)(基)(础)(条)(件)(,但)(同)(时)(未)(来)(市)(场)(风)(险)(加)(大)(也)(会)(限)(制)(加)(息)(。
阻)(力)(与)(风)(险)(决)(定)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(次)(数)(
今)(年)(以)(来)(,金)(融)(市)(场)(和)(金)(融)(机)(构)(对)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(次)(数)(存)(在)(争)(论)(,年)(初)(美)(联)(储)(自)(己)(预)(测)(今)(年)(加)(息)(3次)(,但)(鲍)(威)(尔)(上)(台)(之)(后)(,出)(现)(一)(些)(美)(联)(储)(官)(员)(以)(及)(市)(场)(预)(期)(发)(生)(加)(快)(节)(奏)(的)(预)(测)(,认)(为)(年)(内)(加)(息)(4-5次)(的)(概)(率)(进)(一)(步)(加)(大)(。但)(我)(认)(为)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(中)(期)(风)(险)(与)(阻)(力)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(。
首)(先)(是)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(的)(拿)(捏)(风)(险)(加)(大)(。美)(元)(贬)(值)(路)(径)(和)(思)(路)(十)(分)(坚)(定)(,因)(为)(美)(元)(遵)(循)(最)(简)(单)(的)(货)(币)(经)(济)(循)(环)(原)(理)(,货)(币)(升)(值)(削)(弱)(经)(济)(,货)(币)(贬)(值)(增)(强)(经)(济)(,进)(而)(美)(国)(经)(济)(越)(好)(,美)(元)(越)(敢)(于)(加)(速)(贬)(值)(。美)(元)(贬)(值)(未)(变)(,但)(方)(法)(与)(节)(奏)(出)(现)(阻)(力)(,其)(中)(欧)(元)(升)(值)(面)(临)(阻)(力)(是)(关)(键)(。毕)(竟)(美)(元)(要)(达)(到)(贬)(值)(必)(须)(是)(欧)(元)(升)(值)(,因)(为)(欧)(元)(在)(美)(元)(指)(数)(权)(重)(配)(置)(之)(中)(具)(有)(56.7%的)(重)(要)(比)(例)(。而)(从)(欧)(元)(升)(值)(角)(度)(看)(,即)(使)(市)(场)(有)(预)(期)(显)(示)(今)(年)(欧)(元)(升)(值)(将)(达)(到)(1.30-1.40美)(元)(,但)(目)(前)(看)(这)(种)(前)(景)(具)(有)(很)(大)(压)(力)(与)(阻)(力)(,未)(来)(或)(将)(直)(接)(限)(制)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(。因)(此)(,延)(续)(去)(年)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(的)(节)(奏)(,今)(年)(依)(然)(预)(期)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(10%不)(确)(定)(性)(很)(大)(。预)(计)(2018年)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(或)(只)(有)(5%左)(右)(,欧)(元)(升)(值)(不)(足)(是)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(的)(畔)(脚)(石)(,也)(是)(美)(元)(风)(控)(的)(重)(要)(参)(数)(。
其)(次)(是)(美)(元)(与)(资)(产)(调)(整)(关)(联)(较)(难)(。一)(般)(情)(况)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(与)(美)(国)(股)(票)(反)(相)(关)(比)(较)(突)(出)(,其)(中)(维)(持)(投)(资)(信)(心)(是)(关)(键)(。美)(国)(作)(为)(货)(币)(霸)(权)(国)(家)(面)(临)(巨)(额)(债)(务)(与)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(,压)(力)(前)(所)(未)(有)(。今)(年)(以)(来)(,美)(国)(就)(有)(过)(债)(务)(导)(致)(的)(部)(分)(政)(府)(关)(门)(事)(件)(。因)(此)(,美)(国)(决)(策)(在)(考)(虑)(汇)(率)(与)(股)(票)(搭)(配)(上)(采)(取)(一)(上)(一)(下)(较)(多)(,同)(跌)(和)(同)(涨)(现)(象)(也)(有)(,但)(相)(对)(较)(少)(。但)(是)(在)(此)(经)(济)(周)(期)(与)(资)(产)(资)(金)(价)(格)(阶)(段)(,美)(元)(贬)(值)(难)(以)(刺)(激)(美)(股)(上)(涨)(,反)(之)(美)(股)(下)(跌)(或)(有)(限)(刺)(激)(美)(元)(上)(升)(,其)(中)(货)(币)(政)(策)(加)(息)(的)(宗)(旨)(是)(关)(键)(。
最)(后)(是)(特)(朗)(普)(政)(策)(效)(应)(不)(利)(于)(加)(息)(。这)(是)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(最)(大)(的)(政)(策)(风)(险)(,也)(是)(最)(大)(的)(不)(确)(定)(因)(素)(。特)(朗)(普)(减)(税)(的)(政)(策)(对)(经)(济)(扶)(持)(性)(较)(强)(,进)(而)(市)(场)(多)(边)(机)(构)(不)(断)(上)(调)(今)(年)(美)(国)(经)(济)(预)(期)(。尤)(其)(是)(近)(期)(经)(济)(合)(作)(与)(发)(展)(组)(织)((OECD)调)(整)(的)(美)(国)(经)(济)(预)(期)(已)(经)(达)(到)(2.9%,这)(预)(示)(美)(国)(经)(济)(稳)(定)(性)(得)(到)(政)(策)(扶)(持)(的)(宗)(旨)(在)(强)(化)(,其)(本)(质)(在)(于)(促)(进)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(政)(策)(的)(有)(效)(实)(施)(。然)(而)(,市)(场)(争)(论)(点)(在)(于)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(重)(税)(政)(策)(。一)(方)(面)(会)(直)(接)(伤)(害)(美)(国)(企)(业)(利)(润)(与)(对)(外)(合)(作)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(美)(国)(展)(开)(双)(边)(豁)(免)(做)(法)(,未)(来)(操)(作)(与)(执)(行)(的)(难)(度)(和)(阻)(力)(都)(具)(有)(很)(大)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,更)(具)(有)(较)(大)(的)(风)(险)(。
需)(关)(注)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(长)(期)(目)(的)(
目)(前)(,国)(际)(金)(融)(市)(场)(对)(于)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(意)(义)(局)(限)(在)(短)(期)(化)(比)(较)(严)(重)(,没)(有)(看)(透)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(意)(义)(与)(目)(的)(。笔)(者)(基)(于)(长)(期)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(、金)(融)(与)(市)(场)(的)(跟)(踪)(研)(究)(分)(析)(,我)(认)(为)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(不)(能)(局)(限)(在)(短)(期)(、舆)(论)(和)(表)(象)(,更)(需)(要)(我)(们)(对)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(的)(长)(期)(目)(的)(和)(目)(标)(加)(以)(关)(注)(和)(深)(入)(分)(析)(论)(证)(。尤)(其)(值)(得)(重)(视)(的)(是)(美)(国)(利)(率)(外)(部)(竞)(争)(、市)(场)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(以)(及)(美)(元)(利)(率)(霸)(权)(。
第)(一)(,美)(元)(外)(部)(竞)(争)(对)(手)(明)(确)(,针)(对)(性)(极)(强)(,目)(标)(精)(准)(。美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(策)(略)(、利)(率)(战)(略)(是)(过)(去)(、现)(在)(以)(及)(未)(来)(的)(国)(际)(货)(币)(竞)(争)(中)(更)(值)(得)(警)(惕)(之)(重)(点)(。美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(带)(动)(全)(世)(界)(效)(应)(显)(著)(,这)(与)(美)(元)(霸)(权)(有)(关)(。然)(而)(,世)(界)(经)(济)(与)(货)(币)(政)(策)(分)(化)(局)(面)(依)(旧)(,尤)(其)(是)(美)(元)(利)(率)(又)(具)(有)(很)(强)(的)(针)(对)(目)(标)(与)(目)(的)(。回)(想)(美)(元)(霸)(权)(受)(到)(的)(挑)(战)(来)(自)(欧)(元)(问)(世)(,由)(此)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(对)(策)(针)(对)(性)(明)(显)(就)(是)(欧)(元)(。现)(阶)(段)(的)(利)(率)(博)(弈)(或)(是)(美)(元)(瓦)(解)(和)(解)(体)(欧)(元)(的)(收)(尾)(阶)(段)(的)(战)(略)(战)(术)(。
第)(二)(,美)(元)(阶)(段)(战)(略)(拿)(捏)(恰)(当)(,控)(制)(风)(险)(能)(力)(高)(超)(。美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(,更)(值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(是)(美)(元)(的)(货)(币)(战)(略)(意)(图)(与)(利)(益)(诉)(求)(。金)(融)(流)(动)(性)(过)(剩)(发)(生)(于)(90年)(代)(全)(球)(化)(之)(后)(,也)(是)(美)(联)(储)(降)(息)(抉)(择)(引)(起)(与)(带)(领)(全)(球)(央)(行)(的)(一)(致)(行)(为)(,美)(联)(储)(利)(率)(水)(平)(从)(1%的)(历)(史)(低)(位)(进)(一)(步)(达)(到)(零)(利)(率)(的)(极)(端)(时)(代)(,进)(而)(导)(致)(全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(过)(剩)(局)(面)(一)(发)(不)(可)(收)(拾)(,投)(机)(过)(度)(、套)(利)(过)(度)(、对)(冲)(过)(度)(、短)(期)(过)(度)(、现)(金)(过)(度)(、现)(货)(过)(度)(清)(晰)(可)(见)(。然)(而)(,这)(一)(状)(况)(和)(背)(后)(的)(含)(义)(与)(举)(动)(更)(是)(发)(人)(深)(醒)(。美)(国)(产)(业)(创)(新)(之)(后)(的)(全)(球)(化)(带)(来)(从)(美)(国)(本)(土)(转)(移)(海)(外)(的)(美)(国)(新)(配)(置)(与)(新)(调)(整)(,因)(此)(我)(们)(看)(到)(页)(岩)(气)(、机)(器)(人)(、纳)(米)(等)(新)(科)(技)(、新)(技)(术)(、新)(产)(品)(在)(美)(国)(产)(业)(升)(级)(换)(代)(中)(表)(现)(突)(出)(,并)(且)(直)(接)(带)(来)(美)(国)(从)(失)(业)(率)(高)(企)(到)(失)(业)(率)(下)(降)(的)(变)(化)(。
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